Risk knowledge, monitoring and forecasting, alert dissemination, and response capacity are central to effective decision-making that provides timely and actionable warnings for imminent hazards such as cyclones, floods, droughts, heat waves, forest fires, earthquakes, landslides, and volcanic eruptions. However, the emphasis is often placed on data acquisition and monitoring, to the detriment of physical and numerical modelling and its ability to provide physics-based forecasting tools, unlike monitoring-based forecasting tools.

This symposium aims to address this gap by demonstrating the importance of physical modelling and its potential for forecasting. It will focus on two major risks for Rwanda: landslides and floods, and Lake Kivu instability and limnic volcanic eruptions. This symposium will present in a way that is accessible physical and numerical modelling approaches, developed by renowned researchers, that can contribute to improved forecasting. It will explain the potential, limitations, and possible synergies between researchers and policymakers.

This initiative is the result of a partnership between the East African Institute for Fundamental Research and the UNESCO IGCP geoscience programme as well as partners such as the National Center for Science and Technology (NCST, WALL project), the French Embassy in Rwanda (FEF-R KIGASA) and the French Institute for Development (IRD, JEAI). The symposium will target the Rwandan agencies and ministries in charge of environment (REMA, RMB, Meteo Rwanda, MINEMA) and methane extraction operators and distributors (KivuWatt, Shema Power Lake Kivu Limited and REG) offering the opportunity to exchange ideas with international experts on landslides, Lake Kivu and limnic eruptions. We are aiming for 15-20 participants, to which invitation letters will be sent. The format will be hybrid to allow for the participation of international experts, to whom the Zoom link will be shared.

Participants:

- Mr. Ngoga Aristarque, Permanent Secretary of the Ministry in charge of Emergency Management (MINEMA)

- Mr. Philippe Kwitonda, Director General, Minister of Environment

- Mr. Olivier Yves Ineza, KivuWatt.

- Dr.  Vasily Savin, Rwanda Mines, Petroleum and Gas Board (RMB)

- Mr. Godfrey Musafiri, Rwanda Water Resources Board (RWB)

- Mr Aimable Turahirwa, Geological DR Specialist, MINEMA

- Mr Emmanuel Urimubandi, REMA

- Professor Guillaume Nyagatare, University of Rwanda

- Professor Andy Woods, University of Cambridge

- Professor Andrew Hogg, University of Bristol

- Professor Filippo Zaniboni, University of Bologna

- Professor Alberto Armigliato, University of Bologna

- Dr. Antonio Costa, INGV

- Dr. Silvia Massaro, INGV & University of Bari

- Professor Catherine Meriaux, University of Rwanda  

The provisional program, regularly updated, is as follows: